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USA Today Quotes Mike Fuljenz (and Our Customers) in a Positive Gold Article

Today’s September 1, USA Today published in their Money Section an extensive and positive article on gold (“Gold Gleams in Hard Times”). Even though they only quoted me once (officially), they paraphrased a lot of material I gave them, and what I told them about the qualities of gold. They also quoted some interviews from our satisfied customers, which we helped set up for them. You will probably recognize many of these statements because you heard them here first in the weekly Metals Report – months ago.

 

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The U.S. Mint’s Gold Eagle Sales Rose 383% in 2020 vs. 2019 (and +1,459% in Summer Months)

During the first eight months of 2020, 589,500 Troy ounces of Gold American Eagles were sold by the U.S. Mint vs. only 122,000 ounces for the same eight months in 2019, a 383% increase. This was despite periodic work shutdowns this year due to coronavirus, and a complete cessation of production of the popular $5 tenth-ounce gold Eagles for a three-month period. Production of the $5 gold Eagles finally resumed in July, with 35,000 of the smaller coins sold in July and another 30,000 sold in August. 

          

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Gold is Rare, Paper is Cheap: That Should Spell Higher Gold Prices

The dollar is down 10% in the last five months in part because the Federal Reserve added $3 trillion to its balance sheet and the U.S. Congress passed $3 trillion in relief packages through May with more to come.

The 2020 federal deficit is $2.8 trillion through July 31. All this compares with a paltry 108 million ounces of new gold mined each year. Even at $2,000 per ounce, that’s only $216 billion, less than 10% of the budget deficit and less than 1% of annual GDP.  Gold is very hard to find, and it is increasingly found only in politically dangerous jurisdictions or in difficult geographical locations for mining equipment.

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Gold Had a Roller Coaster Week

Gold had a roller-coaster week, topping $2,000 an ounce again last Tuesday, August 18, as the U.S. Dollar dropped to its lowest point in two years, falling over 10% in a 5-month period since March 18.  Then, gold drifted lower as the dollar rallied. On Friday morning, August 21, gold fell from $1,950 down to $1,910 before rallying back above $1,940 as U.S. initial jobless claims climbed back above 1 million again.

Flash Alert! Two Hurricanes are Headed for Beaumont – But We Are Prepared!

As of Monday Morning, when we planned to send out this Metals Report, two hurricanes were headed for the Texas Gulf Coast near our border with Louisiana.  First, Hurricane Marco has been downgraded to a tropical storm for the time being, but it may hit our coast Tuesday night.  Hurricane Laura is predicted to be a Category 2 hurricane at present and it is likely to hit near Beaumont on Wednesday night. Although there may be some difficulty reaching us by phone for a while, if the past is any guide, we will relatively soon after the storm passes be able to take your orders and ship products again in a timely manner.

 

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Our 2020 Gold and Silver Price Projections Were Too Conservative!

Our 2019 predictions were “right on” for $1500 gold, but our 2020 predictions were too conservative. Back in July 2019, we “boldly” predicted $18 silver by year’s end and $20 silver in 2020. We got the $18 silver within three months and then we got $20 silver by July 21 – then silver kept on rising to nearly $30!

 

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July Inflation Grows at a 7.4% Annual Rate

The U.S. Dollar Index is down nearly 10% (-9.7%) in the last five months, due largely to the massive Inflationcreation of trillions of new dollars in stimulus money and deficit spending by Congress, plus Federal Reserve liquidity for bank lending in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In time, this is almost certain to fuel a new round of higher inflation and higher gold prices. The gold price rise has begun, and now the inflation rates have started to rise, despite the 2020 recession temporarily dampening consumer demand.

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Warren Buffett Switches from Banks to Gold

One of the most successful investors of the last 50+ years has always had an eye for value. The big headlines on Friday showed that the “Sage of Omaha” was unloading his long-time holdings in U.S.

Photo by Mark Hirschey
Photo by Mark Hirschey

bank stocks and buying gold stocks. At the mid-point of each quarter (August 15 in this case), hedge fund managers are required to release their holdings to the SEC. We have usually reported any unusual moves in the gold market by these hedge fund managers. This time around, there have been more “first time” gold buyers than usual. For instance, Mason Capital Partners, Sandell Asset Management and Caxton Associates all initiated new positions in the SPDR Gold Trust, which has followed the price of gold by rising about 30% year to date. But there’s no question that the most outstanding rookie buyer in the gold market is Warren Buffett.

 

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Now is Not the Time to Sell - 1st American Reserve advises

In times past, gold “spiked” to a peak and then fell back, so that the peak would have been a good time to sell bullion.  That is probably not the case this time. Gold has not spiked to a sharp peak, this time around, as it did in 1979-80. This rise has taken five years and this last rise has been gradual. The 2011 rise from $1,500 to $1,900 was fairly sharp, but gold prices stayed above $1,500 for another 18 months in that case.

 

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Silver is More Volatile than Gold – Like “Gold on Steroids”

Gold pierced the $2,000 “barrier” last week and stayed above $2,000 all week, reaching a record high of $2,078. Silver soared to $29.90 before correcting – an amazing 149% run from barely $12 last March. The gold-to-silver ratio had dropped from 125-to-1 in March to a historically normal 70-to-1 Monday

Silver’s rapid rise to $29 is not without precedent. In 2011 as well as 1980, silver spiked to nearly $50 an ounce when gold was rising at a more moderate pace. The major reason for silver’s more rapid rise is that it is a much narrower market, so that the same amount of money entering the silver market will drive it much higher than the gold market, on a percentage basis. When the metals markets are rising, silver will often attract more money since it is more affordable to more investors than the higher-priced gold.

Brokerages are starting to back silver: TD Securities said that “Silver continues to outperform and remains our precious metal favorite.… strong investment flows and robust industrial demand combine for strong performance at a time when the microstructure creates a disincentive for silver bullion traders to sell.”   

Here are some of silver’s fundamental market advantages over gold from a trading perspective

Smaller Supply: The annual supply of new silver is around one billion ounces, while the annual supply of gold is 120 million ounces. Using the start-of-year prices of $1515 gold and $18.04 silver, that’s about $18 billion in silver vs. over $180 billion in gold – or 10 times as much gold capitalization as silver.

This explains why silver is far more volatile than gold. If $10 billion moved into the silver market, it would push silver prices up sharply, but it would only move gold up slightly, and it probably wouldn’t budge Apple stock.  Both gold and silver are tiny specks of stock market dust compared to stocks like Apple, now worth $2 trillion – or Microsoft or Amazon.com, worth $1.6 trillion each. It takes 10 years of newly mined gold and silver to equal the market value of Apple, so precious metals are still grossly undervalued.

Affordability. Another reason silver moves faster than gold is that more investors can afford silver than can afford gold. That’s why it’s called “poor man’s gold.” This was the basis of the Presidential elections of the 1890s – the silver (or bi-metallic) standard vs. gold standard. The Eastern establishment favored the gold standard, but the western farmers and miners could not afford to buy even a single ounce of gold.

The Democratic candidate William Jennings Bryan criticized the gold standard and favored inflating the currency by the free coinage of silver, which gained favor in that deflationary age among the debt-ridden farmers whom Bryan championed. In 1896, he gained fame his speech, ending: “You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”

Industrial demand. Silver also has far more industrial uses than gold, so when the global economy recovers, silver should perform better than gold, but that angle is not in play this year. In normal times, silver demand is 60% industrial and 40% investment. This year, silver’s investment angle has prevailed.

ilver is More Volatile than Gold – Like “Gold on Steroids”

Gold pierced the $2,000 “barrier” last week and stayed above $2,000 all week, reaching a record high of $2,078. Silver soared to $29.90 before correcting – an amazing 149% run from barely $12 last March. The gold-to-silver ratio had dropped from 125-to-1 in March to a historically normal 70-to-1 Monday

 

 

 

 

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The Adens Declare “Gold is the Best Investment in the World Today”

In their popular financial newsletter, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden declared on July 17 that gold is “the best investment in the world today” and told their readers “we want you on board the gold train as it pulls out of the station.”  The Adens outlined some of the reasons why: “Gold is, and always has been, the world’s safe haven. That is, during times of uncertainty, insecurity, economic or political upset, war, devaluations and more, gold has always come out as #1. And this track record goes back more than 5,000 years… 

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Get to Know the “Team Mike” Professionals at 1st American Reserve Working with Dr. Mike Fuljenz, America’s Gold Expert®

Jeff Medley is truly an experienced professional account manager having served clients of 1st American Reserve since 2005.  Prior to joining 1st American Reserve, he worked professionally as a respected residential, commercial and industrial electrician.

 

 
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The Best Storage Option for Your Precious Metals

Last Tuesday, July 28, 2020 Danielle Braff of The New York Times wrote an article about gold storage, a subject that has interested us for a long time. She interviewed a lot of interested parties, with some fascinating facts, but I’m afraid there was some disinformation presented in the article.  She quoted several operators of private bullion vaults, who had a vested interest in recommending against the use of bank safety deposit vaults.

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